May 09
Based on a regression analysis of the 2005 season, the number of wins of a baseball team can be predicted by the equation W = -55.574 – 15.0869ERA + 609.516OBP. (F-stat = 64.19, R2 = 0.826, SEW = 4.68)
Unfortunately for Chicago Cubs fans, if they continue to maintain their current ERA of 4.57 and OBP of 0.310, I predict they will win 64 ± 9.36 games this year with a 95% confidence interval.
May 12th, 2009 at 9:03 pm
[...] Methodology [...]
June 5th, 2009 at 6:36 pm
[...] Cubs team OBP: 0.329 Current Cubs team ERA: 4.17 This year’s prediction: 82-80 (Methodology) Previous prediction(s): 78-84 [...]
July 5th, 2009 at 11:31 am
[...] Cubs team OBP: .322 Current Cubs team ERA: 3.90 This year’s prediction: 82-80 (Methodology) Previous prediction(s): 82-80 (6/5), 78-84 [...]
August 9th, 2009 at 7:59 pm
[...] Cubs team OBP: 0.328 Current Cubs team ERA: 3.79 This year’s prediction: 87-75 (Methodology) Previous predictions: 82-80 (7/5), 82-80 (6/5), 78-84 [...]