Jul 04
Per request, I have calculated my predictions for the 2007 Chicago Cubs season.
Based on the Cubs’ current team OBP of .329 and team ERA of 3.94 (both from here), the regression predicts a final record of 86-76.
Since a naive extension of their current record of 41-40 predicts they will finish 82-80, it seems the Cubs have been playing better than their record indicates.
July 4th, 2007 at 1:43 pm
Check out their record in one run games, that’s probably the difference you’re seeing.
BP’s postseason simulator has 3 modes, here are their results:
regular: 87.9 wins.
pecota: 88.5 wins.
ELO: 83.4 wins.
So you’re in good company with that projection.